"People are telling me now that we’re actually in the conversation again because of these wins. See, I didn’t know these wins would get us back into the conversation." If you have followed the precursors, you would agree with Anora director Sean Baker’s statement about being out of the conversation; for Best Director. Look at it. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) won the BAFTA and the Golden Globe; Jon M. Chu (Wicked) won the Critics Choice Award. These wins would have led to the 53-year-old being resigned to his fate and created an impression that there was no clear front-runner. But then came February 8.

Baker’s win at The Beverly Hilton has him in the driver's seat for Best Director at the Academy Awards. Why? He has received a massive statistical advantage similar to 68/76 previous DGA recipients. 

That is how many DGA winners have converted that win to an Oscar win as well. It does not mean that it is going to be a cakewalk for Baker, but here is why he is the favorite and may not go the way of the unfortunate 8. He had said, as per the Los Angeles Times, “It was extremely weird to hear them call out ‘Anora.” However, he may have to get used to it, unless… 

One of Brady Corbet, James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), or Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) can stop him. 

The latter three names have not won a precursor award for directing and it will be tough (not impossible) to see either of them break through at the Oscars. That leaves only Brady Corbet in Sean Baker’s path, but the Anora director can become the 69th person to win the DGA and the Oscar in the last 77 years as…

Sean Baker’s DGA win did more than just let him make a mark at a televised and major precursor. He won the one that matters the most (statistically), with an 89.47% conversion rate since the two award bodies have been in existence. 

Now that is quite a high conversion rate since 1949, i.e. the year John Huston (The Treasure of the Sierra Madre) beat Laurence Olivier (Hamlet). And that long back…Harry S. Truman was President. 

This conversion rate increases to a whopping 90.90% in the last 11 ceremonies since Ben Affleck’s bizarre snub for Argo! 

Advantage Baker?

Yes. Advantage, but not set in stone. We will explore how it is imminent. First, let us take a look at the 8 directors who did not convert the Guild win to an Oscar triumph.

Baker is in the same boat as Anthony Harvey, Ron Howard, and Rob Marshall in terms of a win at the DGA but nowhere else. However, two of these names missed a nomination at one of the shows, i.e. Harvey and Howard were not nominated at the BAFTA. 

Sean Baker has been nominated at all 3 shows and the Oscars, but Rob Marshall was in the same boat and could not convert the DGA win. 

Also, think of Ang Lee, Ben Affleck, and Sam Mendes… Affleck aside (as that was a shocker) the other two swept everything and still lost. These three directors are proof that one must not take a win as a given.

Mendes, the only one to suffer this fate in the last decade, lost to a film riding a wave of international support. Is there one that has such support this year? Emilia Pérez qualifies as one, but it is not having a strong enough run to make a dent in Baker’s narrative.

So now is it advantage Baker? Almost, as Brady Corbet's BAFTA win, can present a small concern for fans of the Anora director. 

The Brutalist director’s BAFTA win came two days before the closing of Oscar votes. However, we will not read too much into that as the BAFTA has not been a good indicator of the Best Director race. In the last 24 BAFTA ceremonies, 15 directors have converted the directing win to an Oscar. Though this has improved to a 70% conversion rate in the last 10 ceremonies, all 7 who won the BAFTA headed into the Dolby Theatre with the DGA win. 

Now, let us look at names that won (Globes and BAFTA) and lost (DGA) the same precursors as Brady Corbet. There are two in the last 15 years, i.e. David Fincher (The Social Network) and Richard Linklater (Boyhood). However, these two won the Critics Choice Award- something Corbet could not secure. 

The duo lost to DGA winners, Tom Hooper and Alejandro G. Iñárritu, in 2011 and 2015, respectively. This statistic could also bode well for Baker and his film, as both The King’s Speech and Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) clinched the Best Picture Oscar. 

While the 70% conversion does look good, a thing to wonder is how many of the BAFTA votes came before the AI accusations for The Brutalist. Also, could the DGA and PGA on Feb 8 have swayed fence sitters to cast early ballots from February 11 to February 16, i.e. the day Brady Corbet re-inserted himself into the conversation with a win at the Royal Festival Hall? It does not seem likely as there isn't any Anora backlash. 

Sean Baker’s stock will only rise with him helming a strong film. Combine it with the fact of no early favorite narrative, no skeletons emerging from Anora, and the statistics of pathways to success. And yes, the Academy Award is Baker’s to lose.

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