Harrison Ford saying “Conclave” on February 23 may have changed things. You did not expect that, right? Anora did feel like a front-runner with the support from the other guilds, and Wicked seemed a lock for the Acting Ensemble at the SAG. But it was Edward Bergher’s papal thriller that revealed something we have not seen for a while in the build-up to the Academy Awards. There is a three-way race for Best Picture for the first time since 2019 (Green Book vs A Star Is Born vs Roma)! And though that would not bode well for Conclave (as Black Panther won the SAGs top award that year), the British film has some other things in its favor. A sort of lucky charm as well. 

15 previous SAG Ensemble winners have gone on to clinch the Oscar for Best Picture. This includes a 100% conversion rate ever since the 2022 ceremony. A thing to note is that CODA, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and Oppenheimer had a wave of love and support for anything apart from their names being read out for the final award at the Oscars may have seen the presenter have the exact look Jack Nicholson did in 2006. Yup, remember his expression when he said, “Crash” rather than Brokeback Mountain? 

Now, should Conclave win, it should not come across as a shocker; especially with the following things considered.  

The Academy’s largest branch is the acting one, which is why the SAG nod (if not a win) is critical. By simply getting a nomination in that category, Conclave has leapfrogged Nickel Boys, The Substance, The Brutalist, Dune: Part 2 and I'm Still Here. Voting will, of course, overlap with picks not getting changed unless there is backlash (take, for instance, Emilia Pérez losing traction) towards a particular film or a ‘too predictable’ narrative (La La Land). Conclave is in no way predictable as it has not exactly swept the award swing right from the Globes. Also, if there were any controversies (there are not any), too bad, the ballots have been cast. 

Now, when it comes to support from the actors, Conclave can be seen as a film that takes a hit with the Academy. Why? It has just Ralph Fiennes (Best Lead Actor) and Isabella Rossellini (Best Supporting Actress) up for awards on the night. It is one less than the likes of The Brutalist and A Complete Unknown. While the latter did also have 3 individual SAG nods, it converted just one. And The Brutalist? It got shut out at the Shrine Auditorium. 

Who knows how many view Conclave as a safe and strong film over the likes of Anora? Perhaps Stanley Tucci just missed out on a nomination by a whisker? Besides, Fiennes, Rossellini, and Tucci, strong performances from the respected and strong cast of John Lithgow, Sergio Castellitto, and Lucian Msamatti can only help Conclave get goodwill. 

If this is not it, there is also the Ralph Fiennes factor. 

Wes Anderson may be kicking himself right now after learning this stat. The auteur’s The Grand Budapest Hotel was up for Best Picture, but Fiennes was not nominated. Why does this matter? Well, the British actor has received two previous Oscar nominations for Acting- Supporting Actor for Schindler's List and Lead Actor for The English Patient. In both ceremonies, though he did not win, the film he was in clinched Best Picture. Can it continue and be third time lucky for Fiennes?

It is important to note that both Steven Spielberg (Schindler's List) and Anthony Minghella (The English Patient) won Oscars for directing; Edward Berger does not even have a nomination. That leaves it at a minor disadvantage as just six films have won Best Picture without their director securing a nomination. Three of those have come in the last 12 years, though, which shows Conclave still has a shot; especially as it has a nod in a far more crucial category.  

This one gives Conclave a significant advantage over A Complete Unknown. 

An editing nomination ties into Best Picture even more than a Best Director or a Screenplay nod. Yes, there have been 10 films to take home the trophy, but that number has dropped to just 2 since 1982, i.e. the year after Ordinary People became the 8th to win the Best Picture Oscar without an editing nomination. 

The two outliers since then? Birdman and CODA. While one film was shot to look like a single take, the other had a wave like no film does this year. 

Here is where Conclave manages to get ahead of another one of the threats- Wicked. The Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo starrer does not have a screenplay nomination, which almost rules it out. The last film to win the Oscar without a screenplay nod? 

Titanic. It has been 27 years. 

What is more beneficial for Conclave is that it actually has a shot at a screenplay win (adapted) over Emilia Pérez, while The Brutalist and Anora battle it out in the stacked Original Screenplay section with A Real Pain and The Substance presenting themselves as major threats. So what does Conclave have to put it ahead of these contenders? 

If there is one thing voters do, it is jump on the bandwagon (or vote for their friends). Solely based on voting deadlines, that BAFTA win was timely for Conclave, where it beat out Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, and A Complete Unknown.

Coming in just 2 days before the ballots were due, the win may have seen more voters gravitate towards the thriller. A week later, the SAG Ensemble win (after the BAFTA acting shutout) shows that the guild support is high for Fiennes and Co. 

Remember the names I did not list out initially? These include Wicked, A Complete Unknown, Anora and Emilia Pérez. The former two lack crucial nods in screenplay/ directing and editing, respectively. 

That leaves Anora and Emilia Pérez. The latter will be relegated to Best International Film (unless the backlash is so severe that I'm Still Here clinches it) which leaves Sean Baker’s film. And maybe, let us allow The Brutalist (pre-cursor dominant film) to re-enter the discussion. 

Now, we have already seen guild after guild go against the film, and on Sunday, it was the Actors who went for someone other than Adrien Brody. Looks like that AI stuff is being brutal to Brady Corbet’s film's Oscar chances. Which leaves…Anora. This is where Conclave’s message can help it, as the Academy may opt for this film and allow it to represent what Hollywood stands for in 2025. Archbishop Benitez’s monologue could be the clincher. 

Anger, Frustration, and Shock: Oscar Voter Ballots Reveal Many Emotions As We Inch Closer to The Big Night