Netflix’s hopes of securing its maiden Academy Award for Best Picture took a massive hit last night. The Producers Guild Awards (PGA), a traditional indicator of where the Oscar could go, gave their top prize to CODA. Hence, Sian Heder’s film is in the driver’s seat as 22 of the previous 32 PGA winners have gone on to clinch the top prize at the Oscars. Will CODA make it 23?

It would also not be wise to forget that CODA had secured the crucial Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Ensemble Award, i.e. a massive indicator of where the Actors’ support is directed.  The Netflix Original will take hope from the fact that four SAG Ensemble winners have claimed the top prize; three in the last five years. However, The Shape of Water, Green Book, and Nomadland also won the PGA award. 

With that in mind, Netflix will have to hope that their film (The Power of The Dog) is powerful enough to pull off a Braveheart. 

Netflix Still Has Some Academy Awards Hopes with The Power of The Dog

New Zealand’s Jane Campion took home the Directors Guild Award (DGA). In its 72 year history, the winner of the DGA has overlapped with the Academy Award Best Picture winner on 55 occasions. Meanwhile, unlike the four films that overcame the SAG Ensemble hurdle, CODA didn’t even get a nod for directing at the DGA or the Oscars. Hence, The Power of The Dog has some history on its side at the Academy Awards. 

The Power of The Dog also got the crucial editing nomination. CODA doesn’t have one here, which could go against it on Oscar night. This is because only 9 films that have claimed the Best Picture Oscar have not received an editing nod. So it’s not all smooth sailing for CODA if we only consider the precursors and patterns. 

If CODA wins, it’ll be historic, as Heder’s film will become the sixth Best Picture Oscar winner without a directing nomination; and only the second after Driving Miss Daisy to win the top prize without a DGA or Best Director Oscar nod.

Furthermore, it will be the second film since Ordinary People (1980) to claim the Oscar for Best Picture without receiving an editing nomination.

If The Power of The Dog wins, it’ll buck a 26-year trend and emulate Braveheart with an Oscar win after the SAG Ensemble snub and PGA defeat. Campion’s film would also become the first streaming film to take the Academy Award. 

Which film will create history at the Dolby Theater on March 27?

Will a split between CODA and Netflix’s The Power of The Dog see dark horses like King Richard, Licorice Pizza, or West Side Story win?