Toronto had its share of charming show-offs, with I Play Rocky and Elsinore winning plenty of attention, but La Bola Negra simply swept in and stole the festival’s thunder. The Spanish generational queer drama won TIFF’s prestigious People’s Choice Award, that rather useful Oscar crystal ball, while spanning 1932, 1937, and 2017 to follow three generations in Spain, after its successful run in Cannes.

If TIFF’s People’s Choice is an Oscar breadcrumb, La Bola Negra is already following the trail with suspiciously stylish confidence.

The People’s Choice Award is not merely a shiny Toronto souvenir; it has become one of the festival circuit’s clearest Oscar bellwethers. Most winners in recent years have gone on to secure Best Picture nominations, making La Bola Negra’s victory particularly intriguing. The Spanish drama now has a very useful piece of awards-season evidence on its side.

And the Toronto triumph did not arrive out of nowhere. La Bola Negra had already won Best Director for Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo at Cannes, where the film also received a lengthy standing ovation. That combination of Cannes recognition and strong audience response gives the film a rather enviable awards-season résumé before the Oscars have even entered their final stretch.

Then came another particularly convenient piece of Oscar paperwork, which is, Spain selected La Bola Negra as its official submission for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards. With Toronto now adding its own golden stamp of audience approval, the film has plenty of momentum behind it. An Oscar nomination is hardly guaranteed, but the road is looking unusually smooth, with Best Picture and even a Best Supporting Actress nod for Penélope Cruz suddenly within reach.

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Even with its festival triumphs and Netflix’s longest theatrical run, La Bola Negra faces a crowded Oscar field.

La Bola Negra may have the Toronto crown, but the Oscar road is hardly short of traffic. I Play Rocky emerged as TIFF’s first runner-up, bringing Peter Farrelly’s Rocky origin story and plenty of mainstream appeal into the conversation. Being Heumann also made waves as the second runner-up, with Siân Heder’s awards pedigree adding another layer.

The International Feature race could be even more crowded, with Elsinore taking TIFF’s international audience prize and Possible Love finishing as its runner-up. Cannes contenders Everytime, Coward, and Elephants in the Fog bring their own festival hardware, while The Assassins gives South Korea another serious entry. La Bola Negra certainly has company.

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Do you think, when the time comes, La Bola Negra will take at least one Oscar home? Let us know in the comments!