Film award season is in full swing and nearing the business end. What commenced in the States with the Globes will now see a detour across the pond as the stars will grace the Royal Festival Hall and hope to get a platform for any last minute Oscar campaigning. With some surprises in the nominations such as Leonardo DiCaprio and Greta Gerwig getting snubbed (these were in tune with the Oscars) to the likes of Oscar nominees in Yorgos Lanthimos, Lily Gladstone and Martin Scorsese missing out on nods, it remains to be seen what direction some key races take. Will some names leave London with a trophy and a stranglehold in a particular category? Or could a surprise winner change the narrative?

Let’s find out with an analysis of the four acting categories, Best Picture, and Best Director.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers).

This category seems set in stone with Robert Downey Jr’s performance winning at the Globes and the Critics Choice Awards. While names such as Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers) and Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) are present in the race, they may not cause an upset due to two factors. The first being their lack of nominations at the SAG and the Oscars. The second is the absence of these films from the BAFTA Best Picture Race. Ryan Gosling’s nomination for Barbie will end up as just a nomination. He’s just there, anywhere else he’d be a… well, we won’t know.

The only potential threat to Downey Jr delivering an acceptance speech at the Royal Festival Hall could be Robert De Niro. The octogenarian was the standout from Killers of the Flower Moon and is the sole BAFTA acting nominee from the film.

What works for him is that Killers of the Flower Moon is nominated for Best Picture, and the BAFTA could hand the trophy to De Niro for the first time (sort of like a career achievement award). What works against him is the absence of the film in other major categories, indicating the British Academy is not completely sold on Scorsese’s latest movie.

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr
Should Win: Robert Downey Jr
Dark Horse: Robert De Niro

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Colour Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Claire Foy and Rosamund Pike are home favorites, but their films are not really in the conversation for Best Picture at the BAFTAs and The Oscars. This results in potentially lesser voters actually catching these films, reducing their chances of a win. Danielle Brooks is in the same category with The Colour Purple being roundly snubbed in key categories across various award shows. That leaves us with Emily Blunt, Sandra Hüller, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

Sandra Hüller could find herself beaten by Emma Stone in the Best Actress category, and there doesn’t seem to be a chance she can break through in this category. Emily Blunt is a home favorite and is in what is expected to be the biggest film of the evening. Her strong and silent portrayal of Kitty Oppenheimer can be a deserving winner, but it may be overshadowed by the aura of Downey Jr and Cillian Murphy’s roles in Oppenheimer. And that leaves us with the frontrunner, who has been on a winning spree- Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Voters rarely vote differently and Randolph’s turn as a cafeteria lady and grieving mother in The Holdovers will not prove to be divisive.

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Dark Horse: N/A

Best Actor

The Nominees: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Teo Yoo (Past Lives), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Colman Domingo (Rustin).

This one seems to be a lock. A British actor who has played a variety of roles, ranging from The Scarecrow (The Dark Knight trilogy) to Thomas Shelby (Peaky Blinders). The actor with the most gripping role in what is set to win the year’s Best Film (unless there’s a massive upset). It is tough to see an upset in the Best Actor race, though, as there have been many names floated as potential nominees/winners. While the rest drifted in and out of various lists, Murphy has remained consistent, won the Globes, and walked out of every award show (apart from the Saturn Awards and the Critics Choice Awards) with wins.

If one were to look for any upsets in this category, it could come from Paul Giamatti (the man who clinched the Critics Choice Award) for his turn as a prep school teacher in The Holdovers. He has been the only other consistent name, but anything other than the presenter saying “…and the BAFTA goes to Cillian Murphy” will send shockwaves throughout Hollywood.

Will Win: Cillian Murphy
Should Win: Cillian Murphy
Dark Horse: Paul Giamatti

Best Actress

The Nominees: Emma Stone (Poor Things), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Fantasia Barrino (The Colour Purple)

This category is extremely interesting as Oscar front runner Lily Gladstone has not received a nod. Her absence opens things up, allowing for the insertion of a new name in pole position for the Best Actress Race as the Award swing nears the business end.

Vivian Oparah and Fantasia Barrino may not walk away with the trophy as their films have not made it to many other important categories. Home favorite Carey Mulligan may also return empty-handed as Maestro is all Bradley Cooper. Margot Robbie’s absence in the Oscar Race could be the writing on the wall. Could there be a sympathy vote to give Robbie the BAFTA to make up for her Oscar snub?

It seems unlikely as Barbie‘s absence in the BAFTA’s Best Picture Race could lower the Australian actress’ chances at clinching the BAFTA Best Actress. Hence, it could all boil down to Emma Stone vs Sandra Hüller.

Gladstone’s primary contender, Emma Stone, could proceed uninterrupted, but Sandra Hüller can be a potential dark horse. Emma Stone would be the frontrunner, as she has delivered one of the best performances of the year (at least from the ones that are shortlisted for the BAFTA). Meanwhile, Sandra Hüller can be seen as the top pick considering her nomination at the Oscars, and the double nominations at BAFTA showcases that she has international support. However, it may not be enough with Anatomy of a Fall thriving primarily due to the screenplay, and directing.

Stone did beat Gladstone and Sandra Hüller at the Critics Choice Awards. Now, a BAFTA win could see her edge forward in the very week the Oscar voting commences. It looks like Emma Stone’s award to lose.

Will Win: Emma Stone
Should Win: Emma Stone
Dark Horse: Sandra Hüller

Best Director

The Nominees: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone or Interest), Bradley Cooper (Maestro) Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)

This seems to be a forgone conclusion with the way Oppenheimer has been receiving accolades. Being predictable is something often associated with award shows who then look for a narrative, or for some sort of preference to shake things up. This doesn’t seem to be the year to do so, though, as Oppenheimer is a stellar directorial achievement. About narratives, the voters could look to back a film that showcases the horrors of war… Oppenheimer qualifies there. Nolan clinched the Director Guild Award just last week.

Christopher Nolan is also the home hero… so anything other than a Nolan win will be an absolute shocker. But just for argument’s sake, Justine Triet and Alexander Payne can be potential dark horses. Why? Triet could garner international votes to propel Anatomy of a Fall in certain categories ahead of Oscar voting; just like Edward Bergher’s BAFTA win last year for All Quiet on The Western Front.

Payne is present here, as he is the only name in this category who was also nominated at the DGA Awards.

Will Win: Christopher Nolan
Should Win: Christopher Nolan
Dark Horse: Alexander Payne

Best Film

The Nominees: Oppenheimer, Anatomy of a Fall, Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Holdovers

Oppenheimer seems to be the favorite here and for good reason. So let’s just use this space to explore why the other films could play spoiler. We can eliminate Killers of the Flower Moon due to its scant representation at the BAFTAs. That leaves Poor Things, Anatomy of a Fall, and The Holdovers.

Anatomy of a Fall has crucial nods in directing, writing, and editing. Can it pull off an All Quiet on The Western Front? It seems unlikely as that was a war film with numerous technical nominations, i.e. something Anatomy of a Fall does not have.

Poor Things has the second most nominations, but crucially missed out on nods in Best Director (Yorgos Lanthimos) and Best Supporting Actor (Willem Dafoe, Mark Ruffalo). This could be a sign that the film is not really primed for success in this category.

That leaves us with The Holdovers. Alexander Payne’s film is a sure shot winner in the Best Supporting Actress category, and is a perenninal nominee in other key categories. The surprise BAFTA nomination to Dominic Sessa is an indicator that The Holdovers has some supporters at the BAFTA.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Dark Horse: The Holdovers