“And the Globe goes to…” , “And the BAFTA goes to…”, “the Critics Choice is…” Emma Stone has heard these sentences precede her name, headed to the platform to receive her awards, and cemented herself as the favorite. That is three for Emma Stone, one for Lily Gladstone (Golden Globes), and 0 for the rest. The La La Land actress seems to be in the driver’s seat, but there can be one hurdle in her path at the SAG Awards 2024. It is this one element that can see voters look for viable alternatives to bestow the trophy.

Lily Gladstone (Killers of The Flower Moon), Annette Benning (Nyad), Margot Robbie (Barbie), or Carey Mulligan (Maestro)—The quartet is strong (we will explore why three of them can’t win), but Gladstone stands out as someone who can rival the Academy Award winner. 

Precursor voting bodies differ from each other 

A loss (no nomination in this case) at the BAFTA may not be problematic for Gladstone as the BAFTA Best Actress and SAG Best Actress have overlapped only 11 times in the 29 years both shows have been running. In the last five years, only 20% of BAFTA winners have gone on to lift The Actor. 

Critics Choice Awards can only serve as an influence but not directly impact the SAG Awards. This is because critics aren’t eligible to vote for the SAG prizes. The overlaps here, though, tell quite the story. After three consecutive repeat winners (Frances McDormand (2017), Glenn Close (2018), and Renee Zellweger (2019)), there has been just one overlap (Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye in 2022) in the last few years.

Based on this data, the trend is changing and Gladstone might still have a shot at bagging The Actor. But there is one more reason for her upper hand at the SAG Awards 2024.

SAG Awards 2024: Lily Gladstone has the support of the actors 

Lily Gladstone has an Oscar nomination, a SAG Lead Actress nod, and a Globes win. Her presence in the Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture category for Killers of The Flower Moon is another sign of support from the acting branch. This is something Poor Things’ Emma Stone does not have, which could prove problematic to her chances of a win. 

In the 29-year SAG history, 23 ceremonies have seen at least one Best Actress nominee feature in the Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture Category. On 11 occasions (1999, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2018, 2021, 2023), the Best Actress SAG winner has also received a nomination for the SAG Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture Award. There is precedence for contenders to take the win even if they do not find themselves as part of an ensemble nomination. The split is 3-3 in the last six years.

While McDormand, Viola Davis, and Michelle Yeoh’s wins in 2018, 2021, and 2023, respectively seem straightforward, the three in the other years had something going for them. Glenn Close had the overdue narrative in 2019, Rene Zellweger in 2020 had the upper hand of having played an iconic character, Judy Garland, and Jessica Chastain in 2022 had competitors without an ensemble nomination like herself.

It is important to note in 2021 and 2023, Davis and Yeoh’s wins over McDormand and Cate Blanchett could have come from Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (2020) and Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022) also having received the Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture nomination, which wasn’t the case for Nomadland (2020) and Tar (2022).

When it comes to SAG 2024, Gladstone has cast support like Davis and Yeoh, giving her an upper hand over Stone. That said, neither of them has an overdue narrative or has portrayed an iconic movie star—in fact, the former could hurt the La La Land actress’ chances. 

Emma Stone has clinched the SAG and Oscar before

Emma Stone is a recent winner, having picked the SAG Award for Best Actress just seven years ago. The recency bias could play a factor here with voters keen to reward a new face. It is important to note that this Guild is not averse to crowning repeat winners, with three names clinching The Actor twice, i.e. Frances McDormand, Renée Zellweger, and Viola Davis. Should Stone win, she would join McDormand as the only name to convert her first two lead actress SAG nods to wins.

What’s important to note here is that McDormand’s wins were 21 years apart; Stone’s wins would be seven years apart. This could push the guild to search for another viable alternative. 

Carey Mulligan has been an ever-present with appearances at the Globes, CCA, and BAFTA. She has sat on and applauded her peers and could be set to do the same at the SAG Awards 2024. 

Annette Benning would become the fourth actress to clinch two wins at the SAG Awards. What makes this different from Emma Stone having a shot at a similar accomplishment? Benning’s previous win came 24 years ago. The overdue narrative fits here, with voters potentially pushing for the veteran actress to pick The Actor and eventually The Oscar. However, they took that route last year with Jaime Lee Curtis emerging from the left field and triumphing over Angela Bassett in the Supporting Actress Category.

That rules out this duo, leaving Robbie and Gladstone. 

Margot Robbie has not had a significant buzz on the award circuit, and her lack of an Oscar nomination could be a sign that a SAG nomination is the most she will receive. 

And that leaves…. 

Lily Gladstone winning the SAG Awards 2024 will create history

A Lily Gladstone win will see the first-ever Native American secure an acting honor from the SAG-AFTRA. Moving onto the performance as well, audiences may not view it as just an award for a narrative as Gladstone has really delivered a standout performance to hold her own on screen with Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert de Niro. She makes the audience feel for Mollie Burkheart. 

It will all boil down to Emma Stone vs Lily Gladstone. A Stone win can all but cement her as the frontrunner for the Oscars. A Gladstone win, however, will ensure the Best Actress race witnesses a repeat of 2023. The previous year, Blanchett and Yeoh won Globes—the former won the BAFTA and Critics; the latter won the SAG. Stone seems to be following Blanchett’s footsteps and Gladstone may trace the same path as Yeoh should she win on Saturday.

The SAG Awards 2024 will be live on Netflix on February 24 at 8 PM ET/5 PM PT.