It’s déjà vu! We are in for a repeat of the 2023 (Cate Blanchett vs Michelle Yeoh) race for Lead Actress. This year’s Emma Stone vs Lily Gladstone contest for lead actress saw a huge twist, with the latter emulating the Everything Everywhere All At Once actress’ win. Lily Gladstone took home The Actor, indicating powerful support from the largest guild at the Academy Awards. Her win at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall positions her as the name to beat as 72.41% of Lead Actress SAG winners (21/29) have repeated their win at the Oscars.

This number has improved to 76.92% in the last 13 ceremonies, showcasing a uniformity in voters’ preference across award shows. There may not be a change on March 11, as there is a pattern emerging. Gladstone’s win not only showcased her support, but also gave her an opportunity to cement herself in voters’ minds.

Lily Gladstone’s speech focused on visibility, storytellers, and solidarity

A star’s nomination results from a stellar performance and a strong narrative, but it is the campaigning that really sees things fall into place. Lily Gladstone’s win allowed her to make a speech before her peers right in the middle of Oscar voting. Gladstone spoke in her native language before switching to English, where she said, “This has been a hard year for all of us. Those in this room, those not in this room, I’m so proud that we have gotten here in solidarity with all of our other unions.”

“It’s truly a gift that we get to do this for a living. That’s the win. It’s getting to be here, it’s getting to be on set, it’s getting to tell stories. We bring empathy into a world that so much needs it. It’s so easy to distance ourselves. It’s so easy to close off, to stop feeling, and we all bravely keep feeling, and that humanizes people. That brings people out of the shadows. It brings visibility.”

“Keep telling stories to everybody in this room, to everybody watching abroad. Those of you who are not actors but have a voice, have a story that needs to be heard. Thank you for all of the compassionate souls in this room and all of the storytellers here tonight. Keep speaking your truths and keep speaking up for each other.”

The speech built on the narrative of her potentially becoming the first Native American Oscar winner; it spoke about visibility, and provided a mention to the other Academy branches as well. (All of whom vote for every award for the main ceremony). Gladstone’s win does not mean that Stone’s hopes are over; at least based on the numbers. 

Emma Stone can still leave the Dolby Theater with the Oscar 

27.58% Lead Actress Oscar winners have taken home the gold statuette after missing a win at the SAG Awards. The latest instance of this came three years ago when the Academy Awards emanated from Union Station. Frances McDormand (Nomadland) beat Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). Two years before that, Olivia Colman (The Favourite) beat Glenn Close (The Wife). To get the third last instance of the SAG and the Academy crowning different winners, we need to look back at 2012, where the Guild gave the trophy to Viola Davis (The Help) and the Oscars awarded Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady). 

The previous two instances were in 2003 and 2008. 2003 saw Nicole Kidman (The Hours) beat Renee Zellweger (Chicago), and 2008 saw Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) beat Julie Christie (Away From Her). It is important to remember that all five years saw the eventual Oscar winner also claim the BAFTA. The previous different picks came in 1995 (first SAG Awards) and 2000. 

[In 2009, Kate Winslet (won the BAFTA and the Oscar) did not receive the SAG lead actress, but picked the SAG supporting actress for The Reader.]

On all five occasions, the Oscar winner had something going for them. Meryl Streep had the overdue narrative, with it being 29 years since her last win. Colman clinched her Oscar as many Academy members may not have watched The Wife due to it not having a best picture nomination. Frances McDormand trumped any potential overdue narrative at the Oscars, as she was the face of what became the year’s best film. That, and Davis’ movie, was a Netflix Original. Nicole Kidman and Marion Cotillard played real-life characters. 

Neither Stone nor Gladstone has the overdue narrative, both feature in theatrical releases that are nominated for Best Film. The Killers of The Flower Moon actress has an advantage though, as she essayed a real-life character in Mollie Burkhart. What Stone has working for her is the BAFTA win. 

The only threat from the other three nominees, i.e. Annette Benning (Nyad), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), and Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), could come from the latter. She was not part of the SAG nominees and could be an unknown quantity on Oscar night. International support could also swing things in her favor. This would be a surprise, as the pre-cursors indicate that things are set in stone. 

Who is your pick for Best Actress at the Academy Awards? Emma Stone or Lily Gladstone? Let us know in the comments below.