You might be thinking that this is impossible. After all, Ralph Fiennes has not come up trumps against Adrien Brody in any of the major award shows till now. But no. All things considered, it is not really far-fetched. The Brutalist star got love from the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards, but the BAFTAs is where the real race begins with actors voting for their peers. Voting does see people jump on the bandwagon (advantage The Brutalist?), but per a Variety report, many did not get to it or even finish it. 

And even if they did, as Albus Dumbledore said to the students in the first Harry Potter film- “recent events must be taken into account.” 

Combine these recent elements with two other factors and the other nominees come into the limelight. Besides Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) there is Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Hugh Grant (Heretic), and Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice).

Now we will eliminate Hugh Grant, as he can be seen as the sixth (the 64-year-old actor is the only one in this category who does not have an Oscar nomination this year.)

Sebastian Stan and Colman Domingo’s films are not part of the Best Picture race, implying it would be safe to not consider them as front runners. It is not unprecedented, but only 20% of the last 15 BAFTA ceremonies have gone this way. These came in 2010 (Colin Firth won for A Single Man), 2019 (Rami Malek won for Bohemian Rhapsody), and 2022 (Will Smith won for King Richard). 

That leaves Timothée Chalamet and Ralph Fiennes. The former may not get the nod as he is young and can get more opportunities later. What works, though, is that The Complete Unknown star kind of has an overdue narrative, as he is not a 'complete unknown'. The 29-year-old is on his third BAFTA nomination and has essayed characters like Paul Atreides and Willy Wonka. And, he can benefit from a voting body that has rewarded actors essaying musical icons. Rami Malek won for playing Freddie Mercury and Austin Butler won for playing Elvis Presley.

If we expand to real-life characters, 10 of the last 14 BAFTAs have seen voters go down this route, including last year's ceremony where Cillian Murphy won. Advantage Chalamet again? Seems so, but Ralph Fiennes has a few advantages over his front-running competition. 

Ralph Fiennes has the home-field advantage at the Royal Festival Hall, with voters that have historically flipped the narrative. Take, for instance, the 2021 ceremony where Chadwick Boseman missed out on a posthumous win. Why? The BAFTA made a surprising pick to go for Anthony Hopkins, who then went on to clinch the Academy Award as well. Remember that abrupt ending at the ceremony at Union Station? While this single win may not be enough evidence, one can take a look at the Best Actress category (voter overlap).

Think back to 2019 when Olivia Colman got the nod over Glenn Close and 2013 when Emmanuelle Riva pipped Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence to the BAFTA. What is common with all the three above instances? 

All three did not win the Guild Awards in the same category (Riva did not even get a nomination) and were not even part of the ensemble nomination. It is advantage Ralph Fiennes here as he has been a perennial nominee this season and is part of the SAG Ensemble nomination, showcasing major support from his peers. This is something Adrien Brody does not have. 

Timothée Chalamet is also a perennial nominee, and he ticks the boxes of SAG Lead Actor nomination, and SAG Ensemble. But get this… Ralph Fiennes’ last BAFTA award came a year before Chalamet was born. And this means the 62-year-old Conclave star has…the overdue narrative. 

Ralph Fiennes has just one BAFTA win from 5 acting nominations. His last one? That came in 1994 for his portrayal of Amon Goth in Schindler's List. Now that is such a long time ago…it came over 10 years before his first appearance as Lord Voldemort. Yep, it has been a while, and the veteran has seen his fair share of snubs. 

It is, however, not just been snubs as he has dabbled in other genres and showcased his versatility. Besides playing Voldemort, he has also given strong performances as Gareth Mallory in 3 James Bond films. In terms of recognition, Sebastian Stan and Timothée Chalamet would surge ahead, but Fiennes can fit the mold across the board.

Recognisable name. Check. Good film. Check. Strong performance? Duh, he would not be a regular feature this season if not. And of course, the overdue narrative… but he is not alone. 

One can argue the real overdue narrative is for Adrien Brody, who has never lifted a BAFTA award. In 2003, Daniel Day-Lewis took the win for his portrayal of Bill the Butcher in Gangs of New York. And yes, Brody's László Tóth is a character that can eclipse Brody's Wladyslaw Spzilman, but is it completely Brody? Not quite, with the percentage being fractional. But this can be costly. 

Editor Dávid Jancsó’s words spoke about the complexities of Hungarian. He told RedShark News. “I am a native Hungarian speaker and I know that it is one of the most difficult languages to learn to pronounce. Even with Adrien's Hungarian background - (Brody’s mother is a Hungarian refugee who emigrated to the U.S. in 1956) - it's not that simple. It’s an extremely unique language. We coached [Brody and Felicity Jones] and they did a fabulous job but we also wanted to perfect it so that not even locals will spot any difference.”

They did try ADR, which also did not work, and then turned to Respeecher. Now this saw the editor feed his voice into the model and some elements of his voice are in the final edit, i.e. not 100% Brody. 

Jancsó said, “Most of their Hungarian dialogue has a part of me talking in there. We were very careful about keeping their performances. It's mainly just replacing letters here and there. You can do this in ProTools yourself, but we had so much dialogue in Hungarian that we really needed to speed up the process otherwise we'd still be in post.” That touch-up can take away from the actual acting and see voters look elsewhere. Perhaps some may not even choose to watch the film?   

Potential Oscar Contender ‘The Brutalist’ Sparks Intense Debate Among Fans Over AI Usage

Brady Corbet provided a clarification about the aim “to preserve the authenticity of Adrien and Felicity’s performances in another language, not to replace or alter them and done with the utmost respect for the craft.” However, even with certain vowels and letters getting refined, it is not Brody…

Though Dávid Jancsó clarified that they were careful about keeping the performances, the acting would include everything from body movements to expressions and even spoken words. Now, had the Hungarian not been perfect, it would have still been 100% Brody. And even if perfection was the idea, it is quite fair.

Locals may appreciate it and audiences will like it, but what about voters? Will the use of AI dissuade them and move them towards backing another name? Could perfection and timeliness have worked against The Brutalist?

There is no indication of that now, but the precursors had their votes declared before the revelation. Also, there is no overlap between the Globes/Critics Circle voters and the BAFTA/SAG/Oscar voters. They would not have known at the time, but industry voters now know and can take a call, knowing that whichever way things go, it will set a precedent. 

Ralph Fiennes has recent events going for him and can be seen as a safe pick, with the love for Conclave, its cast, and crew pushing him to glory.